Ryan Hass

1/ I've seen a wave of videos and memes from China on America's mounting challenges under Trump, some coming from Chinese officials. I understand the blend of anger, nationalism, and schadenfreude that is animating these efforts, but I would counsel a bit of caution (🧵).

2/ I recognize the self-harm and global volatility Trump's trade war is causing. The loss of confidence resulting from Trump's actions has vaporized trillions of dollars in market value, will push up inflation and unemployment, and could tip US economy toward recession.

3/ I understand why Chinese officials want to spotlight the costs that Trump's trade war is creating in the US. I would caution, though, that few things would be more poisonous for perceptions of China in US than an appearance of efforts to manipulate US public opinion.

4/ Trump has great capacity to break things. Over his 4+ years in office, Trump has proven to be a revolutionary and a disruptor, not an institution-builder or a solver of societal challenges. It will be the work of my generation to pick up the pieces, both at home and abroad.

5/ America is constantly changing, sometimes for better and sometimes for worse. Anyone who bases their understanding of the US upon what is happening in Washington will consistently underestimate America's reservoir of strength and capacity for renewal.

6/ For the past 250 years, the US system of governance has made many mistakes, but in the process, it also has generated more wealth and power than any other country in the world. Some of America's most transformational leaders followed in the wreckage of failed presidencies.

7/ The American people haven't lost their capacity for change and self-renewal. That spirit is still strong. I offer this not to sugar-coat the current mess, but rather to caution against drawing straight-line projections into the future. There will be more zigs and zags. END.