tphuang

Back 15 yrs ago, Chinese development faced 2 distinct problems:
1) Energy dependence on Indian Ocean sea lane w/o Navy to defend it
2) Over dependence on Mkt access &amp; Tech from Western countries.
Focusing on 1) today, let's discuss what China is doing for energy independence. 

WCF saw that China was facing this energy issue when building BYD. He saw China had huge solar potential w/ vast amount of Arid, lowly inhabited land.
Solar required battery to deal w/ intermittency issues.
By electrifying cars, buses &amp; trucks, China reduces its oil dependence. 

Chinese policy makers helped w/ BRI &amp; such, but private business like BYD also saw the need &amp; opportunity so they rushed in &amp; invested to build the formidable supply chain that we see today all the way down to critical minerals, RE magnets, battery materials &amp; solar ingots. 

Along the way, China industrialized across all metal &amp; chemical sectors. It now has the most petrochem capacity as well as Aluminum, steel, Titanium &amp; many other building blocks needed by renewable industry.
And it's building up huge power IC &amp; MCU needed by EVs &amp; renewable grid. 

We now reach the point where they have 2TW of non-fossil fuel power generation w/ 1460GW being solar &amp; wind. All while its electricity demand has exploded to being well over 2x that of US.
Gasoline &amp; diesel demand has plateaued. This addresses about 45% of China's crude demand. 

How does China deal w/ the huge petrochemical sector which accounts for 45% of its demand?
Green methanol/ammonia is a major part of this.
Announced green methanol &amp; ammonia projects already meet 43% &amp; 19% of their current need respectively.
Growing rapidly, game changers. 

It goes beyond just the production of these chemicals, it's also building the transport mechanism around them from Liquid H2 carriers, VL ammonia carriers, Liquid CO2 carriers + CCUS system that capture CO2 from dual fuel ships.
Also building the largest fleet of dual fuel ships 

This includes LNG dual fuel iCER engine, medium speed, low speed &amp; different sized engines.
Methanol dual fuel low &amp; medium engines of different sizes + fuel supply system.
+ Biodiesel marine engines.
+ ports that refuel https://x.com/tphuang/status/1908930685034975518 

See Diagram below for where majority of methanol is produced (Northeast + Inner Mongolia) &amp; where they are consumed.
Coastal provinces where the petrochemical bases are &amp; where the ports are.
Domestic usage + export + refueling dual fuel ships 

NorthEastern+IM are building pipelines to get green fuel to coastal areas.
Jilin making use of its central location in this network to boost its huge chemical industry.
Dalian is taking advantage of this w/ huge green refueling base in Changxin port + new green chemical base. 

These provinces are all developing full Hydrogen industrial chain from electrolysis, storage &amp; fuel cell to production &amp; transport to using it in chemical industries, transportation &amp; metallurgy.
Can this revitalize the Northeast?
https://x.com/tphuang/status/1806997847742497265 

As I stated here, Shanghai &amp; other Chinese ports like Dalian &amp; Shenzhen are all looking to become major trading hubs for green fuel &amp; chemicals.

If world moves from fossil fuel to green fuel. Energy sector high value service jobs are moving to China https://x.com/tphuang/status/1908930685034975518

Through govt planning, private entrepreneurship &amp; competition -&gt;
China is breaking through on its energy security issues.
Well on its way to electrifying land transport + moving marine &amp; air transport to green H2 based fuel
+ leading the way in H2 derivatives for chem industry

1 thing catching my eyes today is the 500kV line from China to Laos which will allow power to be transmitted bw 2 countries.
+ China is building wind/solar projects in Laos &amp; plenty of hydro.
85% of hydro power expect to be exported.
To Thailand, Vietnam &amp; even to Singapore. 

Laos -&gt; Thailand -&gt; Malaysia -&gt; Singapore
so Singapore can get clean energy to fulfill its net-zero obligations
Once China builds out 500kV line, it can supply to Laos, &amp; Vietnam, which can then supply rest of ASEAN.
Projects use Chinese expertise in grid, renewables &amp; transport 

ASEAN is a high growth part of the world. Growth requires cheap energy.
China Southern Power Grid had 17 projects in ASEAN countries since 2009.
Here it is training 33 mgmt &amp; technicians from Vietnam
on Solar/ESS/super charging infrastructure.
China -&gt; energy service industry. 

Guangxi Power Grid hosted the training and personnel exchange w/ 5 ASEAN countries in 2023.
Most recently, Vietnam hosted China/ASEAN electricity cooperation near Hanoi.
China working w/ Vietnam on renewable energy, ESS &amp; NEVs.
China is figuring this out &amp; showing its neighbors. 

Biggest beneficiary is still Laos. Mekong river flows 1987km thru Laos &amp; Laos has build ~4GW hydro power there w/ theoretical potential of 23GW.
Its electricity export revenue was ~$2.38B in 2023 mainly to Thailand, Vietnam &amp; Cambodia.
30% of its total export. 