George Robertson
@BickerinBrattle
stated since Jan 2025 that there are 2 games with different probability distributions - one the "Trump Effect Game" which has a 1 1/2% to 2% hit to GDP via austerity, that game has a distribution with a mean around 4800.
then there is another game - the "Trump Constitutional Game" with very fat tails where the use of Executive Orders ends with direct confrontation with Supreme Court and federal judiciary ending either in chaos and instability such market can have extreme lows or,
the use of fiat/edicts and Executive Orders is ended and almost all the EO to date are rendered useless and the entire first 100 days of Trump's policy initiative to implement his "agenda" is ruined and his presidency neutered and likely never repaired.
the "constitutional crisis" has a bizarre range of 2200 to 7800 with no equilibrium. the lows are from Trump able to seem to fight effectively the judiciary which is tantamount to an insurrection and a severe attack on the rule of law which is the basis for all US markets.
the highs are from Trump being vanquished and ending the next 3 years sulking and powerless allowing Congress to run the show. my read, likely premature but given the possible gains a reasonable risk. is that the constitutional crisis acts have come and gone resolved against
..Trump. Some fireworks to come but the market will quickly start to trade as it had since 2022 valued by the fiscal impulse which is still very significant. wild ride. now long 50% of book in JPM and 50% in BA.