George Robertson
@BickerinBrattle
Canadian dollar headed to 1.40 or lower as there will be no effective tariffs applied. Some face saving bluster but Trump with Bessent guidance trying to find exit from the pit Navarro and Miran dug. Trump now aware was error as note how quiet he has gone on Canada.
The Canadian tariffs ploy was centerpiece of Trump jingo foreign economic policy, the mainstay to replace income tax with tariffs (self imposed mercantalism) and it is a bust.
And as his Let's Make a Deal plan for Ukraine peace plan being laughed at and used by Putin fails, ending with poasible end of US hegemon over Europe (and likely start end of the Russian empire) as Europe finally forced to become a nation state, a US national security failure.
All that is left is for Trump to blow it with China. Pretty sure he will do that.
The DC federal circuit, with two federalist judges under the circuit chief justice Srinivasan Biden appointee likely to affirm Judge Boesberg. This will start the unraveling of almost all Executive Orders decree and end DOGE.
So there you have it. DC circuit decision imminent and all of Trump foreign policy initiatives likely to be rendered null. A fiasco. And Trump clown car carries on giddy and belligerent tap dancing on judiciary third rail.
When market realizes all this Biden's macro economic setting carries on as if Harris won - from a macro econ point of view. Never has a POTUS inflicted such self harm so quickly.
When realized by market, SP towards 6200 then towards 7000 likely ending in mania as Trump in disarray and Fed muted. Very ugly ending but not for a few years.
Chance Dems blow the obvious opening for 2026 midterms if they do not jettison the cultural shibboliths of drag queen toddler story hours, holy DEI, Obama inspired protests, and NYC and LAX corruption Tweedist.
It has yet to go fully nuts.
For upcoming, large rally in SP500 and USDCAD 1.3950 . Long BA as the wild one, JPM as most direct immediate reflection of econ, and MGA for "O Canada" . No leverage. Oh, also short USDCAD.
What a wonderful market. And it is all politics, no "Swinging the Alphabet" crap ( no RRP QR QRA ATI, QE in drag organic, QT and and and....). Majority of the sentiment neromancer podcasters won't be with us end of this year as they are whipsawed.
It is Trump time! Strap in. And this has absolutely nothing to do with MAGA and anti MAGA. Think of a massive laxative shoved... well you get the point, right?
Thank you Trump! Sincerely.