George Robertson
@BickerinBrattle
Trump is not stupid but he has a habit of being ignorant and trusting flip intuition more often or not formed by how it will impact "ratings" - reality TV - by now it is dawning on him that Navarro and Miran are not ignorant just stupid and he is out on a limb with tariffs.
that combined with the serious blow to "ratings" from the Signal accident will lead him to scramble to repair the tariff mire. he will blame someone and still apply a soundbite by raising tariffs on something not requiring protection. Michelin, Mercedes, Toyoto etc in US now.
the problem with the 25% tariff is all American auto makers have considered Canada autoland - Niagra falls sweeping up around shores of Lake Ontario as simply Upstate NY. however Magna and others already have US capacity. Tariff on finished autos for a bit, but none autoparts
There will be no tariffs on lumber and potash. that should be enough for Trump to luster around. The Signal error will result in a tough nut added to the Whitehouse - Bannon? - and either Miran or Navarro booted out.
markets this means, for me, long MGA, JPM and for high risk, BA - continued short USDCAD with tight stops (so far small net gain PL) and will try to start shorting LBRM25.CME