Looks like will lose half of what gained yesterday so prior better fess up. The outside gains for yesterday's PL was not from my framing but that Trump backed down and added some spice with bombast.
I did nail that the setting was there that is forcing Trump to back down, that he blinked, but the backbone to my spiel that Trump is a chimera a media event or even a media fantasia is not absorbed yet.
As long as Trump uses EO and pronouncements sans Congress the courts will erase his measures. That is occurring at the pace expected from the courts.
Soon at least 20 GOP reps will realize it isn't primary risk Trump uses as a cudgel but being associated with malevolent chaos of Trump that will become the reelection risk. Trump exhaustion of this "look at me" highjacking of all media is coming and will become disgust.
When the revealing of Trump for what he is becomes clear, or rather that politically he doesn't exist, the markets have no choice but to revert back to the "No Fed" matched with still hefty fiscal flow valuation of equity. That is, in the end, well over 6800 in S&P 500.
However the final vestiges of the Great Sombulance of Fed forward guidance cutting vol in half has ended with Trump. So the path to 6800 will seem 1/2 the time to be headed to hell, ridiculing that 68000 target as vol (real vol not the daft VIX focus) moves to 30% in S&P 500.
All great rallies in US equity are based upon or moved hand in hand with regime jumps upwards in volatility. Why the S&P 500 has not reached peak levels.
US Treasury 10s are wilding and when they reconnect to the still obvious fiscal, lack of Fed, and strong NGDP with inflation floored at 3%, should settle at 5 1/2%. US T 10 Y is still about 5/8% below the level should have/will have. Watch 30 y conventional mortgages.
Meanwhile this Trump Show (Truman Show?) continues. In the background is Canada (still) in the personage and wisdom or Marshal McLuhan.
Am long GS RTX and MGA . (As usual looks like my OTM short dated calls on MGA are a bridge too far - but got alotnof equity so only a sigh.) Seek up 20% trr from here to end the Trump Show.
(An important caveat. As the great dynamic duo of @M_C_Klein and @michaelxpettis stated "All Trade Wars Are Class Wars" state, my add: "Most Trade Wars End With Real War". Always watch the waxing and waning of US national security in terms of effective deterrence not ability)
I know I am gaining certain follow from those who could make this happen: set me up with 50 mm and a letter of credit. Wouldn't I be a great hedge against your rock stars who are 10x brighter than I but have yet to understand what that is worth? Izzy conrrols. Not solicitation