đ§” CPI came in at 2.4%. Consensus was 2.5%. Markets: đ Macro Twitter: âSTAGFLATION. ITâS OVER.â Letâs talk about why everyone suddenly thinks theyâre Paul Volcker đ
1/ So⊠CPI comes in lower than expected. Thatâs disinflation, right? Wrong. Apparently 2.4% is now a code red event. Growthâs dead. Rates are stuck. Time to panic and post inverted yield curve screenshots again.
2/ Stagflation used to mean: Inflation above 5% Growth flatlining Unemployment spiking Central bank powerless Now it means: âCPI missed by 0.1% and Iâm bored.â
3/ Letâs look at the actual backdrop: HYG is near highs â SOFR is chill â DXY is soft â No repo stress â BTC holding â But sure. Stagflation. Let me grab my bell bottoms.
4/ Growth fear? LUMBER:GOLD is 0.19 â yeah, not great. But if weâre truly stagflating, credit would be cracking and gold would be vertical. Right now? Goldâs up, but markets are calm. Translation: macro friction, not terminal failure.
5/ đ§ Final Oz Take: CPI at 2.4% doesnât scream stagflation. It whispers: âWeâre late cycle. The Fedâs stuck. But the worldâs not ending.â Still breathing. Still trading. Still watching vol fade while the crowd screams into the void. âOz
