Published: April 10, 2025
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đŸ§” CPI came in at 2.4%. Consensus was 2.5%. Markets: 😐 Macro Twitter: “STAGFLATION. IT’S OVER.” Let’s talk about why everyone suddenly thinks they’re Paul Volcker 👇

1/ So
 CPI comes in lower than expected. That’s disinflation, right? Wrong. Apparently 2.4% is now a code red event. Growth’s dead. Rates are stuck. Time to panic and post inverted yield curve screenshots again.

2/ Stagflation used to mean: Inflation above 5% Growth flatlining Unemployment spiking Central bank powerless Now it means: “CPI missed by 0.1% and I’m bored.”

3/ Let’s look at the actual backdrop: HYG is near highs ✅ SOFR is chill ✅ DXY is soft ✅ No repo stress ✅ BTC holding ✅ But sure. Stagflation. Let me grab my bell bottoms.

4/ Growth fear? LUMBER:GOLD is 0.19 — yeah, not great. But if we’re truly stagflating, credit would be cracking and gold would be vertical. Right now? Gold’s up, but markets are calm. Translation: macro friction, not terminal failure.

5/ 🧠 Final Oz Take: CPI at 2.4% doesn’t scream stagflation. It whispers: “We’re late cycle. The Fed’s stuck. But the world’s not ending.” Still breathing. Still trading. Still watching vol fade while the crowd screams into the void. —Oz

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