🧵 CPI came in at 2.4%.
Consensus was 2.5%.
Markets: 😐

Macro Twitter: “STAGFLATION. IT’S OVER.”
Let’s talk about why everyone suddenly thinks they’re Paul Volcker 👇

1/
So… CPI comes in lower than expected.
That’s disinflation, right?
Wrong.

Apparently 2.4% is now a code red event.
Growth’s dead.
Rates are stuck.
Time to panic and post inverted yield curve screenshots again.

2/
Stagflation used to mean:
Inflation above 5%

Growth flatlining
Unemployment spiking
Central bank powerless

Now it means:

“CPI missed by 0.1% and I’m bored.”

3/
Let’s look at the actual backdrop:

HYG is near highs ✅
SOFR is chill ✅
DXY is soft ✅
No repo stress ✅
BTC holding ✅

But sure. Stagflation. Let me grab my bell bottoms.

4/
Growth fear?
LUMBER:GOLD is 0.19 — yeah, not great.
But if we’re truly stagflating, credit would be cracking and gold would be vertical.

Right now?
Gold’s up, but markets are calm.
Translation: macro friction, not terminal failure.

5/
🧠 Final Oz Take:
CPI at 2.4% doesn’t scream stagflation.
It whispers:

“We’re late cycle. The Fed’s stuck. But the world’s not ending.”

Still breathing.
Still trading.
Still watching vol fade while the crowd screams into the void.

—Oz