Published: April 15, 2025
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By Jan 21 was yelping about constitutional crisis which wasn't understood until late March. In late March yelping crisis resolved as shown by House HR 2665 and Emily Ley Paper v Trump and other lower court cases trudging towards SCOTUS. Now focus is transition trade war to war.

However as others realize there will not be a constitutional crisis that SCOTUS with Coney Barrett and Roberts forcing Kavenough and Gorsuch to join, and Senate showing attention, markets will revert to Bidenomics as Trump bet all on tariffs.

As there will not be tariffs, and we revert to still remaining entrenched Bidenomics, markets should quickly reach a "No Trump" pricing. But this will be because Trump failed in tariffs and failed in controlling the narrative. I think then, if not already, Trump goes to war.

No one is considering this and still only focused on tariff or no tariff switch. As above they likely won't, unless Trump strikes Iran now, for a few weeks during which markets have large rally.

But if he strikes shortly or time is compressed and war happens imminently then we go to panic mode and equity crashes. No doubt Russia has already provided ship killer sonic ballistic ship killers to Iran so likely a capital "ship of the line" USN is lost.

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