only important econ metric is census new home sales and price data tomorrow. the obvious circus clown car aspects of Trump and his cabinet, resulting in astounding ineptness (these guys/Trump could not be conservatives for life of themselves) makes the useful market approach....
.....to simply ignore Trump and clown car in terms of market impact but for indication of popular sentiment. the underlying macro framing Biden left us is still strong and definitive of the US economy. and since Trump is distracted with Navarro and Bessent pandering, this ...
....framing has not been touched. from a macro economic point of view it is as if Harris won the election (though by now she could have screwed up, of course). the macro economic flows since Covid are still massive and have momentum.
Momentum that will take them into 2026 in terms of defining the setting for equity. But for the Covid experience and then before that during WWII, the current constant firehose impulse into the economy is astounding - perhaps out of control with Johnson with purse strings.
There is still no sign of the Fed, no punchbowl snatching, no lag, not even any significant "forward guidance". Fed is hiding from Trump and will only make the dyke around the system banks higher and stronger. Perhaps the right course of action now.
Have taken my net worth and 73% in cash (the right thing to do I think given how bonkers all this is now). and carved out 27% into "speculative". there is not altering covariance now so key to investment being MPT is not available now.
In the spec account am long JPM GS MGA BA, now "cheating" as it is leveraged. The basic thesis is as far as macro and ultimately the US econ and then equity - there is no Trump which means left with Bidenomics. And as Fed maintains rigor mortis - there is no Fed.
@BickerinBrattle Curious why the term “Bidenomics”? As though he was an economic orchestrator who left his mark. Is he not, like all other sitting presidents, but a passenger in most regards, especially economic conditions set by the Federal Reserve?
@Market8B why not? no inference just fact ok ok call it "chicken in every pot go to win the election" economy? Congress gave Biden emergency powers to fight Covid but never asked for it back, again to have Dems win in 2024. amazing is that despite this spend Trump/GOP won
