Today likely to be a down day in PL. Can't get flat as going forward anticipate large upwards jumps defy timing and grind down otherwise. Post later but stability in M2 velocity reflects likely Fed moving to a rules based policy with wide bands and end of QT/QE set reserves.
If reserves are fixed means end of forward guidance as Fed shrugs and says "beats me" with forward guidance and will wait Trump out. The Bidenomic fiscal flows still with us and makes any monetary policy near impossible with Trump flailing.
Waltz to head up CEA to be parked until Chair frees up. As he is going to be enraged with SCOTUS betrayal as he doesn't understand federalism, he will be betrayed by Hoover gang Waltz type as doesn't understand Fisherian monetarism hand in hand with federalists.
Think this means 5 1/2% in US Treas 10 years as it first closes in on 10 year risk free and then starts to trade to expected NGDP a la, again, Fisher. Maybe Bullard comes back from exile?
S&P 500 trades up with fat tail to the upside and normal in downside. Days trading down 3:2 or so and the upside 2x the grind days down. Still speculative market, all political, all Trump bombast with Keynesian realities of Bidenomics still with us.
Trump will be a good, cathartic. Political Miralax. Had single handed caused a needed reform of both parties - just they do not realize it yet. But the price? A very heightened risk of World War as Trump in rage and frustration goes to his unquestionable constitutional power.