1/ An interesting tension is emerging on discourse around China. On one hand, public views of China in the US are becoming less charged as Trump engages more with China. At the same time, sentiment inside the Beltway is growing more alarmed by Trump's deal-making approach. (🧵).
2/ For example, Semafor reported on polling by Third Way showing that US public perceptions of China are improving. This aligns with Pew polling that shows negative views of China dropping for first time in 5 years, even as such views remain quite high. https://www.semafor.com/articl...
3/ At the same time, there is palpable discomfort inside DC with some of Trump's recent steps to lower tension with China (e.g., removal of ban on Nvidia's H20 chip sales, decisions on Taiwan, etc.) These are captured in open letters and recent op-eds: https://www.ft.com/content/d10...
4/ Trump appears focused on rebalancing trade relations with China, projecting confidence that he can do deals with Xi, and highlighting opportunities that would flow from progress along these lines. He is using his bully pulpit to shift away from threats and fear for persuasion.
5/ Trump is unique in his orientation toward PRC. His range of potential policy impulses is far wider than just about any other US politician. He is fluid and non-ideological in his orientation. He is more confident and less anxious than others about being painted soft on China.
6/ Trump also can turn on a dime. He is no more wedded to amity and friendship with China than he is to permanent hostility. He is unlikely to deliver a durable and permanent reorientation of US-China relations.
7/ Even so, Trump appears to be reorienting discourse on China away from threat politics, which is where it has been for some time. For further insights on "The Promise and Peril of Threat Politics," I recommend @Brettarosenberg's thoughtful analysis: https://carnegieendowment.org/... END
@ryanl_hass Not so, Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. The consensus is that China will cheat on everything, we are making sure they don’t. We also know that just because they agree to something doesn’t mean they will do it. They need us more than we need them. Remaining calm.
@ryanl_hass @joshrogin No one gives a shit what *Beltway insiders* think on anything. That’s why we elected Trump. You idiots would still be looking for WMDs in Iraq and said Ukraine would win last year. You’re all discredited and worthless.
@ryanl_hass I think he is doing great so far. He decoupling China without saying he is decoupling China, and he is influencing other countries to follow. Easing on H20 which in the first place not cutting edge, plus Nvidia is no longer producing them, just selling what’s left in stock.
@ryanl_hass “Fight the Han with the methods of the Han” Sun-Tzu (forget about “The Art of the Deal” ;-)
@ryanl_hass The China hate from the Beltway never made any sense, still doesn’t
@ryanl_hass Fluid or just transactional?
@ryanl_hass "It's confusing. It's demoralizing. Why surrender our position of superiority?" Pro tip: https://x.com/2020benlang/stat...
