Time to drop all my stats and fantasy takeaways recapping today’s games, via @FantasyPtsData! 1. The Giants’ targets shares for the ~36 minutes after Malik Nabers went down: Theo Johnson - 30.8% Wan’Dale Robinson - 30.8% Darius Slayton - 15.4% Cam Skattebo - 15.4%
2. Speaking of Skattebo, he commanded 83% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities in his first full game without Tyrone Tracy. That included all 5(!) backfield carries inside the 10. Offense is probably toast without Nabers, but not much left to do besides feature Skattebo.
3. With Panthers TE Ja’Tavion Sanders out, Tommy Tremble took over and tied for the team target share lead (22.2%). In the only game Sanders missed last year, Tremble scored 12.7 fantasy points on a 98% route share. He’s in streaming consideration for any games Sanders misses.
4. The Patriots’ backfield was a gross three-way split. By carry share: Stevenson: 41% Henderson: 32% Gibson: 27% All 3 backs got at least 1 carry inside the 10. Henderson has narrowly led in weighted opportunities each of the past two weeks (9.8, 8.1).
5. …Much like the WSH backfield. Jacorey Croskey-Merritt has 3 fewer carries than Chris Rodriguez over the past 2 weeks… …But, he surprisingly leads Commanders RBs in targets (3) since Ekeler went down. Buy-low if you’re a believer in his talent. https://x.com/RyanJ_Heath/stat...
6. Drake London’s target shares and fantasy totals this season: W1: 35.7%, 13.5 W2: 19.0%, 6.9 W3: 18.6%, 10.5 W4: 38.5%, 25.0 Probably worth noting that London sprained his AC joint at the end of the game in Week 1. If that was affecting him in Weeks 2-3, it isn’t now.
7. Alvin Kamara (17.9% target share) out-targeted Juwan Johnson (10.7%) for the first time this season. …But it happened the same week Kendre Miller got his first two carries inside the 10-yard line of the season, including one drive where he subbed in for Kamara at the 15.
Kamara did re-enter on the same drive, even drawing a target near the goal line. But the point remains that there’s a chasm between Kamara’s current role and the one from 2024, when he led all RBs in XFP/G (19.3).
8. James Cook’s backfield carry shares, by week: W1: 81% W2: 66% W3: 86% W4: 92% (a career-high, excluding Week 14 of 2024, a game in which Bills RBs totaled just 6 carries) Cook hit 80% just three times all of last season. He’s already tied that in 2025.
9. The Browns trailed for almost the entire final 3 quarters. Quinshon Judkins’ day: - 21 of 23 backfield carries - 11.4% target share - 18.8 weighted opportunities (top-5 through the early games) If he's fed him regardless of game script, he is a borderline RB1.
10. Weighted opportunities for the Lions’ backfield, by week: W1: Gibbs 22.6, Montgomery 13.0 W2: Gibbs 14.6, Montgomery 11.2 W3: Gibbs 29.0, Montgomery 9.1 W4: Gibbs 13.8, Montgomery 7.6 Gibbs has 65% of the backfield’s weighted opportunity this season.
I’ve seen some ridicule the offseason take that Gibbs could earn a larger share of the backfield, but that is literally what’s happened. Through Week 14 last year, Gibbs had 183.8 weighted opportunities to Montgomery’s 183.1. A perfectly 50/50 split.
11. Omarion Hampton’s target share in Weeks 1-2: 6.6% In Weeks 3-4: 13.6% (would rank ~top-8 this year) No Chargers RB aside from Hampton has received a carry since Harris went down. The Joe Alt injury hurts, but LAC is favored in their next 8 games. Hampton = an RB1
12. Jordan Mason clearly isn’t a three-down bell cow. Despite a goal-line carry, Mason’s 14.0 weighted opportunities were actually fewer than Zavier Scott’s (14.4) in Week 4. Scott tied with Jordan Addison for 2nd on the team in target share (17.4%).
13. As a whole, the Steelers’ backfield is absurdly valuable. Kenny Gainwell benefitted from it today, with Jaylen Warren a surprise inactive. But this backfield now averages 26.8 weighted opps/game. That would have ranked 2nd in the NFL last year, behind only the Lions (29.1)
14. The Eagles ran two plays inside the 5 today. They resulted in two Dallas Goedert TDs: one on a shovel pass, and the other on an underhand toss. Saquon Barkley scored on a fake tush push from the 6.
15. 149 of the Buccaneers’ 289 receiving yards came on two plays. Those were 14.2 of Bucky Irving’s 29.5 FP, and 14.7 of Emeka Egbuka’s 20.1. But usage-wise, we saw what fantasy managers want: consolidated target shares for Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin (25.0% each)
16. Woody Marks took over the Texans’ backfield! - 57% backfield carry share - 17.9% target share - The only backfield rush attempt inside the red zone, which he punched in for an 18-yard TD
The Texans are underdogs in each of their next four games, but this is still probably enough to consider Marks a fringe-top 25 RB rest-of-season. 17. In new Titans playcaller Bo Hardegree’s first game, Elic Ayomanor led the Titans (for the first time!) with a 26.9% target share.
18. Michael Pittman’s target shares since Week 11 of 2024 (he never carried a designation after missing Week 10 with his back injury): 23.3% 25.0% 29.2% 23.7% 27.3% 26.3% 22.5% 27.6% 14.7% 24.0% 30.3% Pittman averages 16.9 FPG in his six games without AR over this span.
19. Kyren Williams saw just 59% of the backfield’s carries today. That’s his lowest in an active game since Week 12 of 2023, when he got a 50% share in his first game back from injury. Aside from that, he hasn’t been at sub-60% since Week 1 of 2023, before Cam Akers was cut.
20. Brenton Strange’s target shares, by week: W1: 12.9% W2: 11.9% W3: 17.5% W4: 22.6% He and Brian Thomas Jr. are the only Jaguars to maintain at least a 10% target share in every game, which is… something. Strange leads the team in receiving.
21. Both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall suffered injuries. Both tried to return, but neither was targeted on the final 4 drives. Target shares in that span: Christian McCaffrey - 41.7% Kendrick Bourne - 16.7% Demarcus Robinson - 16.7% Skyy Moore - 8.3% Jake Tonges - 8.3%
22. Cooper Rush played the entire 4th quarter, with Lamar Jackson nursing a hamstring. Target shares with Rush: Zay Flowers - 45.5% Justice Hill - 18.2% Tylan Wallace - 18.2% Rashod Bateman - 9.1% Mark Andrews had double the targets (8) of any other Raven through 3 quarters
23. Xavier Worthy’s target shares over his last 7 full games, including playoffs: 27.5% 26.8% 23.7% 24.0% 26.9% 25.0% Today: 21.6% Worthy averages 20.9 FPG over this span, and scored fewer than 17 PPR points in just one of those games.
24. Today was the first time this season Rome Odunze (21.6%) didn’t lead the Bears in target share. But that wasn’t a total shock; a Cover 3-heavy Raiders defense set up better for the slots and TEs. I would not expect many future 9-target games from Cole Kmet.
25. Ashton Jeanty’s backfield carry shares, by week: W1: 90% W2: 85% W3: 68% W4: back up to 84% He narrowly set a season-high in target share (9.5%), but of course, I’ve buried the lede of his 3 TDs, including an impressive breakaway run. LV is favored in 2 of their next 4…
That's all I've got for you! If you found this useful, make sure you're following me (@RyanJ_Heath) and @FantasyPtsData for more. Likes/RTs on the first post are also always appreciated. Enjoy the rest of SNF!
@FantasyPtsData You may also want to check out 5 Stats To Know, where I went a bit more in-depth on several of these trends! https://www.fantasypoints.com/...
@RyanJ_Heath @FantasyPtsData Fantastic recap. Thank you
@Scott_Da_Sith @FantasyPtsData Of course!
@RyanJ_Heath @FantasyPtsData Always great work Ryan. We haven’t connected in the past but am always open to talk ball if you are free
@RyanJ_Heath @FantasyPtsData @RyanJ_Heath Wan’Dale Robinson was dropped in my league just before the game. How much FAAB should I drop considering I lost Nabers?
@RyanJ_Heath @FantasyPtsData Great write ups as always