If Feb 2020 is the plan, this where markets turn bullish again, catching everyone totally off-guard. $SKEW measuring OTM puts vs OTM calls hasn't had the 2nd spike yet. The mainstream media randomly bringing out the Jamie Dimon story two days late seems highly suspect to me.
@FinanceLancelot That missing second SKEW spike might be structural; 0DTE flows and call overwriting can flatten tails. If hedges are thin, rallies can rip as dealers chase delta up. Want a tell? Check term structure and VVIX, not late stories about big bank CEOs.
@FinanceLancelot IMO the pause in the VIX would come in early Nov perhaps. Won’t follow the exact feb 2020 rule. We had that in post August this year.
@FinanceLancelot Early october 1980. Imho
@FinanceLancelot Can you give a summary? The chart is hard to see
Rumor has it there is a financial crisis brewing in shadow banking and private equity. The market might be sniffing it 🐽
The China trade war is a distraction. Something is happening to banks. To private credit. Think.
Regional banking crisis 2.0 Pay attention. Thanks for listening
BANK CRASH There has been NO News today on why regional banks have entered a correction with a majority of banks down -10% to 20% since the Fed heads cut rates at the end of Sept. **Overnight Repo Ops have been rising as we been reporting $WAL $BANC $EBC $VLY $KRE
