Published: October 20, 2025
9
33
376

Time to drop all my stats recapping today’s games via @FantasyPtsData! 1. Blake Corum out-carried Kyren Williams 10 to 5 in the 2nd half of a blowout. In the 1st half, Williams led in carries 7-2 and commanded 80% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities, closer to the norm.

2. Travis Hunter’s 29.2% target share was the highest mark by a Jaguars player in any game this year. His 17.4% target share on the season isn’t thaaat far behind Emeka Egbuka and Tetairoa McMillan (each at 21.5%).

3. The positive TD regression hit for Chris Olave! He entered the week leading all WRs in XFP/G (20.0). Today marked his lowest target share of the season (21.9%), but his first game above 16.0 fantasy points. Rashid Shaheed hit his highest target share of the year (28.1%).

4. Kendre Miller left the game after one carry in the first quarter. From that point on, Alvin Kamara handled 8 of 9 carries and 95% of the backfield’s weighted opportunities.

This isn't necessarily a huge boost to how I view Kamara given Taysom Hill’s presence (2 carries for -4 yards today, but scored from the wildcat at the goal line last week) But I still thought it was worth mentioning.

5. Colston Loveland has seen target shares of 10.7%, 10.3%, and 15.4% over his last three games. Cole Kmet has not out-targeted Loveland since Week 2.

6. I’d explore selling high on D’Andre Swift now that he’s averaged 20.8 FPG over his last three games. Kyle Monangai has siphoned off a 38% backfield carry share and 2 of 5 touches inside the 10 since the bye. The upcoming schedule isn’t bad, but it gets rough from Week 11 on.

Additionally, the Bears are only favored in two more games this year. Swift is averaging 16.7 FPG in games the Bears have won since the start of last season, compared to just 9.4 FPG in losses. This year, that split is 16.8 to 8.7.

7. Former UDFA Terrell Jennings out-touched TreVeyon Henderson 5 to 2. https://x.com/MikeReiss/status...

8. Stefon Diggs has now hit at least a 29% target share in 3 of his last 4 games. Over that span, Diggs ranks as the WR13 by receiving YPG (86.0) and the WR5 by target share (29.6%).

9. Titans rookie TE Gunnar Helm’s target shares over the past three games: 12.8%, 7.9%, 14.7% Chig Okonkwo: 10.3%, 15.8%, 5.9%. Yes, this is the most noteworthy thing happening on the Titans.

10. Quinn Ewers subbed in for the Dolphins’ final two drives of this game. This note will only matter if the Dolphins officially pull the plug on the season and start trading pieces. But Malik Washington saw a 37.5% target share from Ewers in this small sample.

11. With David Njoku out, Harold Fannin led the Browns in target share (27.8%) and receiving yards (36) today. This wasn’t ultimately of much consequence due to game script and weather, but Fannin should project as a TE1 in any game Njoku doesn’t play.

12. This is going to ring as a hollow victory. But Ashton Jeanty saw every backfield carry and lost just 1 of 2 targets to Raheem Mostert through the first three quarters of this blowout.

The Raiders are somehow favored in 2 of their next 4 games after the bye... ...and the other two games are against beatable Broncos and Cowboys run defenses.

13. The Chiefs’ target shares in Rashee Rice’s first game back: Rashee Rice - 28.6% Brashard Smith - 14.3% Xavier Worthy - 11.4% Marquise Brown - 11.4% Travis Kelce - 8.6% Travis Kelce averages just 8.7 FPG on 5.4 targets per game in his last 10 games alongside a healthy Rice.

14. A.J. Brown finally had his big two-touchdown day. But Devonta Smith’s 47.8% target share today ranks as the 3rd-highest by a WR in any single game this year. His 183 receiving yards rank 1st. Smith has out-targeted Brown in 3 of their 7 games this season.

15. On a similar note of giving a #2 WR their due... Jordan Addison is averaging 94.3 receiving YPG (~WR3) and 17.4 FPG (~WR10) since his return to the lineup.

Though he had a TD called back today, T.J. Hockenson has exceeded a 20% target share in only 3 of his last 13 games with Addison healthy... ...or 12.0 fantasy points in 2 of 13.

16. Andy Dalton played the entire 4th quarter after Bryce Young left the game with an ankle injury. He directed 5 of his 7 targets to Xavier Legette during this time. Kind of a weird note. Legette wasn’t active during the only other drive Dalton has played this season.

(The more instructive note here might be that Dalton is averaging 9.21 ANY/A and a 123.2 passer rating this season, compared to Bryce Young’s 5.07 and 84.4, respectively. Legette is interesting if Dalton starts next week, but the bigger deal would be competent QB play for TMac)

17. 3 of Isaiah Davis’s 4 targets came on the remainder of the Jets’ final drive before halftime after Hall left the game with an ankle injury. Hall returned after the half and received all 3 RB opportunities the rest of the way (the Jets abandoned the run).

Will wait on any injury/trade news, but I'm not sure the Jets going to Tyrod Taylor, or this usage, was necessarily bad for Hall with context.

18. Across four games without Josh Downs over the past two seasons, Alec Pierce is now averaging 73.7 receiving YPG (~WR13) and 15.6 FPG (~WR15). He’s hit at least a 23.5% target share in 3 of those 4 contests. He led the team with a 29.4% share today.

19. Over his past two games, Chargers rookie TE Oronde Gadsden is averaging 8.5 targets and 21.1 FPG (both 2nd to only Trey McBride) and is leading the position in receiving YPG (116.0). He’s now accumulated more receiving yards than Harold Fannin in two fewer active games.

20. Tyrone Tracy scored 9.1 of his 10.6 fantasy points on a single untouched TD run with a gaping hole in front of him. Otherwise, Cam Skattebo maintained a 77% backfield weighted opportunity share, and ranks as the RB6 by weighted opps (18.7) and FPG (20.4) since Week 3.

21. Troy Franklin continues his weird season. Today marks the 3rd time he’s led or tied for the team lead in target share. However, his only significant fantasy production today came on a tipped TD catch.

22. Jacorey Croskey-Merritt continued to get the bulk of the Commanders’ backfield carries (72%) and weighted opportunities (54%). However, this week was a good demonstration of the issues with his profile as a fantasy asset:

- Chris Rodriguez and Jayden Daniels got a carry each inside the 5, to Bill’s 0 - Just 5 opportunities for JCM in the 2nd half with the Commanders trailing, which will be a more common occurrence should Jayden Daniels remain out

23. The Cowboys’ offense condensed exactly how we’d want it to with CeeDee Lamb back: 70% of the team’s targets went to Lamb (26.7%), George Pickens (20.0%), and Jake Ferguson (23.3%)

At a glance, it looked to me like Pickens’ old role, where he was used downfield/near the sidelines. Lower success rate but higher-leverage targets. He even drew an end zone DPI (of course).

Share this thread

Read on Twitter

View original thread

Navigate thread

1/33