Parker Ross

Headline initial (224k) and continuing claims (1,856k) were roughly in-line and below expectations (225k & 1,886k, respectively), but Federal continuing claims-- which aren't counted in the headline figures--are still marching higher.

Flows *into* unemployment have cooled for Federal workers as initial claims for Unemployment Compensation program for Federal Employees (UCFE) took another step down during the week ending 3/8. Note that the UCFE data is lagged a week vs the headline series.

We also got updated seasonal adjustment (SA) factors, which include revisions back to 2020 and factors to use through early 2026.

Details on the impact of the new SA factors and an update on DC metro-area unemployment in the 🧵

The updated seasonal adjustment factors had very little impact on the data.

Below is a comparison of the before and after for initial and continuing claims with the prior and revised SA factors. 

Effectively smooths the data a bit more and it looks like the BLS flagged an outlier during Christmas week 2021 for initial claims.

Note that the underlying NSA data is not revised, only the seasonally adjusted series.

For private sector workers hit by DOGE layoffs (i.e., government contractors and workers impacted by cuts to Federal grants / contracts), we're still seeing surging continuing claims in the DC, Maryland, Virginia (DMV) region through the week ending March 15. 

However, similar to the UCFE data at the top, flows into unemployment appear to be stalling out in the DMV region, with initial claims nearly back in-line with the recent norm for this time of year. 

Despite the political distortions I noted earlier in the UMICH survey, it's rather remarkable how much income growth expectations have plunged since early 2024 (lowest since GFC), while job loss probability has surged to a level only surpassed briefly during the pandemic &amp; GFC... 

The NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations is typically less distorted by politics, but even there, we've seen a notable step up in expectations for higher unemployment over the coming year, albeit not as high as suggested by UMICH 

Interestingly, most of that rising job anxiety appears to be coming from moderate- and higher-income households, as lower-income households see lower odds of losing a job now than any time since peak labor market tightness... 